"Hi Sana,The trends are definitely upward because this is a cumulative rate of infection. If you plot the new daily cases (cases[n] - cases[n-1]) you will see peaks for most counties. As far as modeling goes though you can still measure…"
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"I plotted the infection rate and it seems to have a pretty steady upward trend. How did you manage to see the impact mobility has on the infection rate if the trend shows no change across a lot of days? "
"Sorry it took me so long to get back with you. I emailed the data I regressed on. The best performing model I found to be a RandomForest, closely followed by Light Gradient Boosted Trees. A couple of things to keep in mind, here…"
"Hi Paul I don't know how much the datasets are secret that people publish their datasets on the GitHub."
"Hi Paul,
Have you performed a polynomial linear regression or just a basic one? Im not sure but wouldn't a polynomial one fare better in this case?
Im confused as to how exactly you constructed the Gaussian filter. Would you mind giving me more…"
"Hi Paul,
My concern was also linear regression. I. really appreciate that if you give me the final data ( manipulated data) to play with.
Also explaining the Gaussian filtering. Here is my email
[email protected]"
"Thanks for your suggestions Patrick - I like the suggestion about the control set although what I normally do is regress on 10 datasets where I randomly mix the dependent variables, and in this case I got no better than 0.07…"
"(county level; not state level data; just re-read)"
Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection RatesPaul B. Parker, Ph.D. IntroductionThe question of how and when to open up the economy as Covid-19 rates drop is fraught with great risk on both sides. How the question is answered is likely the most critical public policy decision in the last few decades. Unfortunately, most of the arguments made so far have been based more on philosophy than science. Reliable data has been sparse, but modern technology provides opportunities…See More
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Paul Parker's Blog
Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
Posted on May 7, 2020 at 6:03am 9 Comments 0 Likes
Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
Paul B. Parker, Ph.D.
Introduction
The question of how and when to open up the economy as Covid-19 rates drop is fraught with great risk on both sides. How the question is answered is likely the most critical public policy decision in the last few decades. Unfortunately, most of the arguments made so far have been based more on philosophy than science. Reliable data has been…
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