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Paul Parker
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  • Palm Springs, CA
  • United States
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Hugo Bertini commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Thank you for doing this work and for sharing it! I have one question about "The model also suggests that greater mobility in the areas of grocery/pharmacy and parks/recreation would not increase infection rates. ": do you refer to lower…"
Jun 6
Hugo Bertini liked Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
Jun 6
Paul Parker commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Hi Sana,The trends are definitely upward because this is a cumulative rate of infection.  If you plot the new daily cases (cases[n] - cases[n-1]) you will see peaks for most counties.  As far as modeling goes though you can still measure…"
May 27
Sana Asif commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"I plotted the infection rate and it seems to have a pretty steady upward trend. How did you manage to see the impact mobility has on the infection rate if the trend shows no change across a lot of days? "
May 23
Paul Parker commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Sorry it took me so long to get back with you.  I emailed the data I regressed on.  The best performing model I found to be a RandomForest, closely followed by Light Gradient Boosted Trees.  A couple of things to keep in mind, here…"
May 20
Farzali Izadi commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Hi Paul I don't know how much the datasets are secret that people publish their datasets on the GitHub."
May 19
Sana Asif commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Hi Paul, Have you performed a polynomial linear regression or just a basic one? Im not sure but wouldn't a polynomial one fare better in this case? Im confused as to how exactly you constructed the Gaussian filter. Would you mind giving me more…"
May 18
Farzali Izadi commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Hi Paul, My concern was also linear regression. I. really appreciate that if you give me the final data ( manipulated data) to play with. Also explaining the Gaussian filtering. Here is my email [email protected]"
May 17
Paul Parker commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"Thanks for your suggestions Patrick - I like the suggestion about the control set although what I normally do is  regress on 10 datasets where I randomly mix the dependent variables, and in this case I got no better than 0.07…"
May 12
Patrick Stroh commented on Paul Parker's blog post Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates
"(county level; not state level data; just re-read)"
May 11
Paul Parker was featured
May 7
Paul Parker's blog post was featured

Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates

Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection RatesPaul B. Parker, Ph.D. IntroductionThe question of how and when to open up the economy as Covid-19 rates drop is fraught with great risk on both sides.  How the question is answered is likely the most critical public policy decision in the last few decades.  Unfortunately, most of the arguments made so far have been based more on philosophy than science.  Reliable data has been sparse, but modern technology provides opportunities…See More
May 7
Paul Parker updated their profile
May 7

Profile Information

Company:
Farmers Insurance
Job Title:
Senior Data Scientist
Seniority:
Manager
Job Function:
Data Scientist
Number of employees:
10.000 to 24.999
Industry:
Insurance
Short Bio:
Over 19 years of information technology experience with a strong background in Data Science, Machine Learning, Data Mining, Statistical Modeling, and Optimization.
LinkedIn Profile:
http://linkedin.com/in/paul-parker-7aa8305/
Interests:
Contributing, Networking, New venture

Paul Parker's Blog

Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates

Posted on May 7, 2020 at 6:03am 10 Comments

Using Google Mobility Data to Model Covid-19 Case Infection Rates

Paul B. Parker, Ph.D.



Introduction

The question of how and when to open up the economy as Covid-19 rates drop is fraught with great risk on both sides.  How the question is answered is likely the most critical public policy decision in the last few decades.  Unfortunately, most of the arguments made so far have been based more on philosophy than science.  Reliable data has been…

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