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Vincent Granville's Blog – November 2020 Archive (3)

Covid-19: My Predictions for 2021

Here I share my predictions as well as personal opinion about the pandemic. My thoughts are not derived from running sophisticated models on vast amounts of data. Much of the data available has major issues anyway, something I am also about to discuss. There are some bad news and some good news. This article discusses what I believe are the good news and bad news, as well a some attempt at explaining people behavior and reactions, and resulting consequences. My opinion is very different from…

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Added by Vincent Granville on November 29, 2020 at 10:30pm — No Comments

Introducing an All-purpose, Robust, Fast, Simple Non-linear Regression

The model-free, data-driven technique discussed here is so basic that it can easily be implemented in Excel, and we actually provide an Excel implementation. It is surprising that this technique does not pre-date standard linear regression, and is rarely if ever used by statisticians and data scientists. It is related to kriging and nearest neighbor interpolation, and apparently first mentioned in 1965 by Harvard scientists working on GIS (geographic information systems). It was referred…

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Added by Vincent Granville on November 23, 2020 at 6:00pm — No Comments

Interesting Application of the Poisson-Binomial Distribution

While the Bernoulli and binomial distributions are among the first ones taught in any elementary statistical course, the Poisson-Binomial is rarely mentioned. It is however one of the simplest discrete distributions, with applications in survey analysis, see here. In this article, we are dealing with…

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Added by Vincent Granville on November 10, 2020 at 6:30pm — 2 Comments

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