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Paul Derstine's Blog (14)

Visualizing the Performance of COVID Models

by Chris McLean & Peter Bruce

Never before have statistical models received the attention they are getting now in the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic.  It is hard to read a news feed today without encountering either:

  • New predictions…
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Added by Paul Derstine on June 2, 2020 at 7:06am — No Comments

Lockdowns Knock Down the Spread of COVID-19, but Only to a Point (and only early on)

by Mike Thurber and John Elder, Ph.D.

By tracking anonymized mobile phone location data and COVID-19 case reports for many countries with different policies, we studied the effect of restricting mobility on the spread of COVID-19.  We found that lockdown policies did rapidly reduce the…

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Added by Paul Derstine on June 2, 2020 at 6:44am — No Comments

COVID-19: Tuesday Blips in a “Downward Trajectory”

by Carl Hoover, Senior Advisor, Elder Research

We observe a peculiar counter-fluctuation in a COVID-19 statistic -- daily percent changes in deaths; it has a downward trend, but Tuesdays tend to see small increases.

COVID-19…

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Added by Paul Derstine on May 11, 2020 at 6:32am — No Comments

COVID-19 Social Distancing Has Mitigated 2020 Flu Season

by Mike Thurber, Principal Scientist, Elder Research

Three weeks ago, our Brief Is the Spread of the COVID-19 Coronavirus Being Slowed…

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Added by Paul Derstine on May 4, 2020 at 6:02am — No Comments

Coronavirus: Age and Health

by Peter Bruce, President & Founder, Statistics.com

Although there are frequent reports in the news media of young people contracting serious cases of COVID-19 and even dying, the disease in its serious form is…

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Added by Paul Derstine on May 4, 2020 at 6:00am — No Comments

COVID-19 Asymptomatic Rates and Implications

by Mike Thurber, Principal Scientist, Elder Research

A key issue for COVID-19 response policies moving forward is the asymptomatic rate - people who have the virus but do not show symptoms.  If all the people who get the virus show symptoms, then despite the wide scope of the current outbreak,…

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Added by Paul Derstine on May 4, 2020 at 5:30am — No Comments

Covid-19: Epidemiological Models vs. Statistical Models

by Peter Bruce, President & Founder, Statistics.com

Nearly everyone is now familiar with the IHME Covid-19 forecasts (also called the “Murray” model after the lead project investigator at the Institute for…

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Added by Paul Derstine on May 4, 2020 at 5:30am — No Comments

Is the Spread of the COVID-19 Coronavirus Being Slowed?

by Mike Thurber, Principal Scientist, Elder Research

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a need for clear and actionable analytics like never before. The world can’t wait for controlled scientific studies to be completed, or dodge with, “We can’t say anything until we get more data.”…

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Added by Paul Derstine on May 4, 2020 at 5:30am — No Comments

How to Pick a Winning March Madness Bracket

by Robert Robison, Data Analyst, Elder Research

In 2019, over 40 million Americans wagered money on March Madness brackets, according to the American Gaming Association. Most of this money was bet in “bracket…

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Added by Paul Derstine on March 3, 2020 at 7:30am — No Comments

Detecting Hidden Fraud Risk from Public Data

by Hudson Hollister

Detecting which of the federal government’s millions of contracts most likely involve fraud used to require insider access to agencies’ IT systems. Data analytics provides greater efficacy and higher hit rate than traditional investigative methods – and now can even be performed using only public…

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Added by Paul Derstine on October 28, 2019 at 11:30am — No Comments

RADR: A Powerful Visual Risk Analytics Tool

by Vic Diloreto, Director, Software Products, Elder Research

The Risk Assessment Data Repository (RADR) is a powerful risk analytics platform used to enhance productivity in the investigation of fraud, waste and abuse. This server-based, data analytics product  fuses data from…

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Added by Paul Derstine on October 17, 2019 at 5:01am — No Comments

Can Data Analytics Really Deliver 1300% ROI?

With the right business problem, data, and applied techniques predictive analytics can deliver exceptional return on investment (ROI) by, for example, assessing and managing risk, detecting and preventing fraud, optimizing workflow and business processes, and prioritizing resources.  Predictive analytics provides…

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Added by Paul Derstine on August 8, 2019 at 8:28am — No Comments

Investment Modeling Grounded In Data Science

Note: This blog was written by Dr. John Elder and was originally published on www.elderresearch.com/blog.

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Elder Research has solved many challenging and previously unsolved technical problems in a wide variety of fields for…

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Added by Paul Derstine on July 30, 2019 at 9:30am — No Comments

Data is Not Oil. It is Land.

Note: This blog was written by Dr. William Goodrum and originally posted on www.elderresearch.com.

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It has become common to talk about data being the new oil. But a recent piece from …

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Added by Paul Derstine on July 30, 2019 at 9:30am — No Comments

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