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Peter Cotton's Blog (2)

A Fundamental Theorem for Epidemiology

The work of an Italian mathematician in the 1930s may hold the key to epidemic modeling.

That's because models that try to replicate reality in all its detail have proven hard to steer during this crisis, leading to poor predictions despite noble and urgent efforts to recalibrate them. On the other hand overly stylized compartmental models have run headlong into paradoxes such as Sweden's herd immunity.…

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Added by Peter Cotton on May 28, 2020 at 5:30am — No Comments

An Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pandemics. (pip install pandemic)

This is a longer form followup to my post describing the open source pandemic package on PyPI (with Python code also available on Github). You can use the code to simulate millions of people moving about in two dimensions, crossing paths and, unfortunately, getting sick.

This video illustrates the dynamic with a toy sized town of fifty people. Watch how transmission takes place. You might even discern commuting and households.…

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Added by Peter Cotton on April 13, 2020 at 12:00pm — No Comments

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