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All Blog Posts Tagged 'dsc_biotech' (66)

Technical Periods of COVID-19 Fatality Data and the Relevance of Asymptotic Baselines

While I was laid off due to the new Coronavirus, I created a computer application called Little Blue Pearl (LBP) - named after our planet. Although I was recalled about 1.5 weeks later, I find myself continuing to follow the fatality numbers for different countries. I guess it is a bit like bird watching in a certain sense. It is not that I am…

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Added by Don Philip Faithful on April 14, 2020 at 4:25pm — No Comments

An Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pandemics. (pip install pandemic)

This is a longer form followup to my post describing the open source pandemic package on PyPI (with Python code also available on Github). You can use the code to simulate millions of people moving about in two dimensions, crossing paths and, unfortunately, getting sick.

This video illustrates the dynamic with a toy sized town of fifty people. Watch how transmission takes place. You might even discern commuting and households.…

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Added by Peter Cotton on April 13, 2020 at 12:00pm — No Comments

Nonlinear regression of COVID19 infected cases.

In 1927, W. O. Kermack y A. G. McKendrick described the first mathematical model for infectious diseases using a set of differential equations. This model is called SIR because of the three states one individual can have.

These states are:

  • Susceptible: The individuals that can be infected by the disease
  • Infected: The individuals that have been infected and suffer the disease.
  • Recovered: The individuals that recovered from the disease and have become…
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Added by Pablo Gutierrez on April 12, 2020 at 11:23am — 5 Comments

How Chatbots Are Helping In The Battle Against Covid-19?



You might have seen how technologies are serving us in multiple fields and situations whether it is Artificial intelligence, ML or Blockchain. Technologies like artificial intelligence did not leave us alone when are suffering through a disaster like Covid19.…

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Added by Varun Bhagat on April 8, 2020 at 9:30pm — No Comments

Predictability of Life Outcomes - Guess We Can’t Predict Everything

Summary: Whether trying to predict the life outcomes of disadvantaged kids or to model where ventilators will be most needed, a little humility is in order.  As this study shows, the best data and the broadest teams failed at critical predictions.  Getting the model wrong, or more importantly using it in the wrong way can hurt all of us.

  …

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Added by William Vorhies on April 6, 2020 at 2:56pm — No Comments

Bayesian Model for COVID-19 Spread Prediction

Bayesian Model for COVID-19 Spread Prediction

At present time, there are different methods, approaches, data sets for for modeling COVID-19 spread [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. For the predictive analytics of COVID-19 spread, we used a logistic curve model. Such model is very popular nowadays. To estimate model parameters, we used Bayesian regression [7, 8, 9]. This approach allows us to receive a posterior distribution of model parameters…

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Added by Bohdan Pavlyshenko on April 3, 2020 at 12:10am — No Comments

Little Blue Pearl





Little Blue Pearl - named after our planet - has kept me occupied for several days during my 14-day Coronavirus isolation. It is fully functional although I suppose it needs a makeover in terms of its appearance. Like a child after summer break, this is going to be my show-and-tell. LBP is designed to…

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Added by Don Philip Faithful on April 1, 2020 at 11:46am — No Comments

Using Data To Combat COVID-19

#FlattenTheCurve. #StayHome. #QuarantineLife. They’ve all been trending, and it seems like everybody knows that it’s time to stay at home, indoors, and as far apart (physically) as possible. We’re in the midst of a global pandemic, the worst we’ve seen in a century, yet we still see people out and about, on the streets, congregating in large groups, against the unambiguous advice of experts and health professionals.…

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Added by Cheryl To on April 1, 2020 at 11:30am — No Comments

COVID-19 and the Importance of “Obsolete” Data

When the coronavirus broke out in the Wuhan province of China in December 2019, Taiwan was immediately in harm’s way.  Taiwan is less than 100 miles from the China mainland, and as recently as January there were a dozen roundtrip flights between Wuhan and Taipei every week. Yet as of March 19, Taiwan has only 108 cases of the coronavirus and one death.  Why?

Taiwan used the data from 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic that infected over…

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Added by Bill Schmarzo on March 30, 2020 at 8:00am — No Comments

The virus that kills: #coronavirus

Looking through the data available on the internet, reading news and listening to the last outcomes of the new coronavirus outbreak, decided to go moreover about this virulent impact on our society as a whole.

The first outcome has been registered on the 20th of January, following the WHO website statistical information, and the evolution has…

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Added by Federica Gazzelloni on March 26, 2020 at 1:41pm — No Comments

Mortality of #coronavirus

Emergencies preparedness in public health response have been advised on 31st of December 2019 by the WHO China Country Office because of Cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology. Of the first 44 cases reported 25% were severely ill while the remaining 75% resulted in stable conditions.…

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Added by Federica Gazzelloni on March 26, 2020 at 1:30pm — No Comments

COVID-19 infection and The Pangolin affection

Taken from pangolins, it has been found that the virus cause of COVID-19 is a “curse of the pangolin”.

The mammal Pangolin is hunted as game meat for both medicinal purposes and food consumption.

In addition, seven out of eight species of pangolins are threatened with extinction within the next generation. They have been a valuable commodity for…

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Added by Federica Gazzelloni on March 26, 2020 at 1:30pm — No Comments

Transmission of Coronaviruses

Given that, as well as specified by the Order of Veterinarians, there is no possibility of infection transmission, of the novel COVID-19, from our pets; nevertheless our puppies can get infected by the human genome of the COVID-19, several studies highlight the mutations of…

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Added by Federica Gazzelloni on March 26, 2020 at 1:00pm — No Comments

Coronavirus Italy update 26 March 2020

#Italy novel coronavirus outbreak:

From 21 Feb to 26 March casualties daily…

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Added by Federica Gazzelloni on March 26, 2020 at 1:00pm — No Comments

Building a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index

Summary: Since COVID-19 is occupying most of our thoughts these days, it seems appropriate to highlight where AI/ML is making a contribution to getting us out of our homes and back to work. 

 

Since COVID-19 is occupying most of our thoughts these days, it seems appropriate to highlight where AI/ML is making a…

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Added by William Vorhies on March 24, 2020 at 8:40am — 2 Comments

Simulating COVID-19 with Agent-Based Modeling

Here are some (very) early outputs from an Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 that I'm currently developing.

It allows configuring a number of parameters including:

  • population sizes (of healthy and infected people) by age
  • distribution of vulnerability by age
  • level of social distancing in effect by…
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Added by Andrew Steckley, PhD on March 24, 2020 at 7:26am — No Comments

Statistical Uncertainty: Why are Covid-19 Figures so Varied?

If you've been keeping up on the statistics for Covid-19 in the last week (and who hasn't?), you've probably noticed a wide variety of projections for deaths in the United States, ranging from the "best-case" scenario  (327 people) to the "doomsday" figure (2.2 million). Recent statistics published include:

  • 327 to 1.6 million (Former Former CDC director Tom Frieden, cited in the…
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Added by Stephanie Glen on March 21, 2020 at 8:00am — 1 Comment

COVID-19 Forecast: China as a Reference

With the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak, we look at the data and use a simple model inspired by China’s example to predict when the outbreak will abate in various countries.

Forecasts: https://www.codoma.tech/blog/covid19-forecast/ (updated daily)

The forecasts tell us that we, every human being, need to keep following the measures (social distancing,…

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Added by Mohamed A. Maksoud on March 20, 2020 at 11:30am — 4 Comments

Understanding Covid-19 Statistics (in plain English)

My original intent with this article was to write about how to understand statistics in general. However, with the global pandemic on everyone's minds right now, it seems blithe to write an article on understanding statistics without a nod to current events. If you're uncomfortable or unfamiliar with statistics, you might find the facts and figures surrounding Covid-19 hard to decipher. Let's break down the key statistics into plain English and shed a little light on a few…

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Added by Stephanie Glen on March 17, 2020 at 6:30am — 5 Comments

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