An insightful person once said, “Prediction is like driving your car forward by looking only at the rearview mirror!”. If the road is dead-straight, you are good . . . UNLESS there is a stalled vehicle ahead in the middle of the road.

We should consider short-term and long-term prediction separately. Long-term prediction is nearly a lost cause. In the 80’s and 90’s, chaos and complexity theorists showed us that things can spin out of control even when we have perfect…