In the movie the Lord of the Rings – the wizard Sauron says that “The hour is later than you think”
I was reminded of this phrase when I read a report from McKinsey The economic potential of generative A
There are some key findings on the future of AI which shows you how fast the world is changing
- Current generative AI and other technologies have the potential to automate work activities that absorb 60 to 70 percent of employees’ time today. In contrast, we previously estimated that technology has the potential to automate half of the time employees spend working
- The acceleration in the potential for technical automation is largely due to generative AI’s increased ability to understand natural language, which is required for work activities that account for 25 percent of total work time. Thus, generative AI has more impact on knowledge work associated with occupations that have higher wages and educational requirements than on other types of work.
- The pace of workforce transformation is likely to accelerate, given increases in the potential for technical automation Our updated adoption scenarios, including technology development, economic feasibility, and diffusion timelines, lead to estimates that half of today’s work activities could be automated between 2030 and 2060, with a midpoint in 2045, or roughly a decade earlier than in our previous estimates.
This shift will have a major impact on economies.
- Generative AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually based on the use cases the study considered. In comparison, the United Kingdom’s entire GDP in 2021 was $3.1 trillion.This is like adding an entire UK to the overall global economy.
- About 75 percent of the value that generative AI use cases could deliver falls across four areas: Customer operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and R&D.
- Examples of AI impact would include generative AI’s ability to support interactions with customers, generate creative content for marketing and sales, and write code.
- Generative AI will have a significant impact across all industry sectors. Banking, high tech, and life sciences are among the industries that could see the biggest impact as a percentage of their revenues from generative AI. Across the banking industry,
- Generative AI has the potential to change the anatomy of work, augmenting the capabilities of individual workers by automating some of their individual activities.
So, if the pace of change is accelerated in the sense that
- Current generative AI and other technologies have the potential to automate work activities that absorb 60 to 70 percent of employees’ time today.
- Half of today’s work activities could be automated between 2030 and 2060, with a midpoint in 2045
That’s what we mean by the hour is later than you think!
But what does it mean for you?
Here are some implications:
- Redefining Work: Collaboration between humans and AGI can reshape work dynamics. Humans can focus on tasks that require creativity, empathy, complex decision-making, and interpersonal skills, while AGI handles more routine and repetitive tasks. This collaboration can lead to the augmentation of human capabilities and the emergence of new job roles that combine human expertise with AGI support.
- How could humans and AI collaborate in the world of artificial general intelligence? Here are some ideas: Human-in-the-Loop Systems, Decision Support and Augmentation by AGI, Enhanced creativity for humans through AGI, Training and Learning for both humans and AGI and Ethical and Value Alignment
But the most important skill could be problem formulation. Problem formulation is the process of clearly defining and understanding a problem or challenge in a way that allows for effective problem-solving. It involves breaking down a complex issue into its constituent parts, identifying the key factors, and clarifying the objectives and constraints. Problem formulation includes Critical thinking, metacognition and other skills. Problem formulation is a critical step that sets the foundation for finding appropriate solutions. Here are the key aspects of problem formulation:
- Problem Definition
- Objectives and Constraints
- Scope and Boundaries
- Stakeholder Analysis
- Data and Information Gathering
- Problem Decomposition
- Problem Framing:
Effective problem formulation is essential because it guides the subsequent steps of problem-solving, such as generating solutions, evaluating alternatives, and implementing interventions. It helps ensure that the efforts and resources are directed towards addressing the root causes and achieving the desired outcomes.
I believe that this skill will be important because AI will need to know what problem to solve.
In any case, this future is closer than we all think!