We should attempt to creatively synthesize the many pluralistic approaches as well as focus more on synergistic interpretation of findings of these pluralistic researches.
We can recognize that though we cannot precisely predict black swans but forecasting emerging liabilities and their ratemaking can be a professional-character building experience in itself where we train to be better evolvers rather than better predictors alone.
We can highlight that while recognizing facts (in form of quantitative analysis), it seems as if we only tend to scratch its surface as data, on its own, highlights results; whereas there are plenty of processes that culminate in data generation as well as modeling methodology in the first place. There is an incredible depth once when we start looking beyond the facts into fact-making itself; and this is where expert judgment and qualitative profiling can prove invaluable to guide the modeling exercise.
Agile Risk culture is foremost for any modeling exercise because complex systems like financial and insurance sector are not solely run by quantitative numbers, but by the underlying human psychology as well. It is up to the risk culture to not antagonize in binary opposites like complex/simple, good/bad etc, but to reach the middle ground to converge communication and mentalities between different stakeholders.
In the end, it is useful to keep a few sobering meditations in mind:
 Mills, Allan: Society of Actuaries (2010): Complexity Science: an introduction and invitation for actuaries.
 Werther; SOA 2013; Recognizing When Black Swans Aren’t: Holistically Training Management to Better Recognize, Assess and Respond to Emerging Extreme Events
 Wilmott, P. & Derman, E, 2009. “The Financial Modelers’ Manifesto”