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Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?

Started this discussion. Last reply by Jason Oct 30, 2018. 7 Replies

I work at an insurance company, and a process currently exists here where we remove vehicles from auto policies if we find that there’s no insurable interest in the vehicle.  To determine whether…Continue

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Rafael Knuth liked Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
Oct 31, 2018
Jason replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"I've been reading a few different sources on the topic of Reject Inference, which seems to be a pretty common moniker for the scenario I've described here.  It's almost exclusively related to credit/loan application situations,…"
Oct 30, 2018
Jason replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"Thanks for these references, Stefan.  I've found it difficult googling general approaches to dealing with this issue, as most search terms send me in other directions (searching on 'bias' or 'confirmation bias' sends me…"
Oct 30, 2018
Stefan Lessmann replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"Dear Jason, I fully support all that Justin has said already, and just want to add a little remark. Since you explicitly say that you are interested in views/opinions from other fields, I suggest you have a look into the field of reject inference.…"
Oct 29, 2018
Jason replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"Thanks again!"
Oct 29, 2018
Justin Burruss replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"That's it exactly. So let's say during one time period we have 10,000 suspect policies, and of this input the predictive model classified 2,000 as needing underwriter review (predicting no insurance interest), the other 8,000 as not…"
Oct 27, 2018
Jason replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"Thanks for the reply, Justin.  Our plan will certainly include auditing a sample of the negative predictions, at the very least to investigate whether the model is wavering in its ability to identify the cases that we are looking to…"
Oct 26, 2018
Eric Lebigot liked Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
Oct 25, 2018
Justin Burruss replied to Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
"What you mentioned with review of negative cases is prudent. You'll have 100% underwriter review on your positive cases, and some level of review based on random sampling for the negative cases. Just make sure you have large enough random…"
Oct 24, 2018
Tim Matteson liked Jason's discussion Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?
Oct 23, 2018
Jason's discussion was featured

Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?

I work at an insurance company, and a process currently exists here where we remove vehicles from auto policies if we find that there’s no insurable interest in the vehicle.  To determine whether that insurable interest exists, a vehicle registration report is ordered, which identifies the individual to whom the vehicle is titled.  If that individual isn’t a driver on the policy, the case is reviewed by an underwriter and if no legitimate insurable interest is found, the vehicle is removed from…See More
Oct 23, 2018
Jason posted a discussion

Predictive Model Biasing the Target Variable?

I work at an insurance company, and a process currently exists here where we remove vehicles from auto policies if we find that there’s no insurable interest in the vehicle.  To determine whether that insurable interest exists, a vehicle registration report is ordered, which identifies the individual to whom the vehicle is titled.  If that individual isn’t a driver on the policy, the case is reviewed by an underwriter and if no legitimate insurable interest is found, the vehicle is removed from…See More
Oct 23, 2018

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