Can data mining techniques accurately predict the medal counts at the Olympics?  This question came into mind four years ago while I was watching the Winter Games in Vancouver.  I knew that a predictive model could give us an estimate of the number of medals each nation might win; but how close could we get to the actual outcomes? It was a tantalizing project ….      …

When creating a predictive model, data miners need to “tune” it to make the right kind of mistakes.  Setting the cut-off point between ‘promising’ and ‘unpromising’ depends a lot on our client’s biggest concern -- missed opportunities or false alarms.

Data Mining Misconceptions #1: The 50/50 Problem…