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Apply Machine Learning Techniques to Problems in Financial Market

Past literature show that the comparisons of classifier's performance are specific to the types of datasets (e.g., Pharmaceutical industry data) used; i.e., some classifiers may perform better in some context than others. A paper titled CDS Rate Construction Methods by Machine Learning Techniques conducts the performance comparison exclusively in the context of financial market by applying a wide range of classifiers to provide solution to so-called Shortage of Liquidity Problem; cross-validations show that some classifiers, if parameterized properly, achieve very high accuracy; the results from the study either confirm or contrast those from classic literature in this area. The abstract of the paper is attached below:

Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific default risks; we propose to construct proxy CDS rates by associating to illiquid counterparty liquid CDS Proxy based on Machine Learning Techniques. After testing 156 classifiers from 8 most popular classifier families, we found that some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates. Furthermore, we have rank-ordered the performances and investigated performance variations amongst and within the 8 classifier families. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic study of CDS Proxy construction by Machine Learning techniques, and the first systematic classifier comparison study based entirely on financial market data. Its findings both confirm and contrast existing classifier performance literature. Given the typically highly correlated nature of financial data, we investigated the impact of correlation on classifier performance. The techniques used in this paper should be of interest for financial institutions seeking a CDS Proxy method, and can serve for proxy construction for other financial variables. Some directions for future research are indicated.

The techniques discussed can be easily applied to provide solution to a wide range of problems faced by financial institutions and beyond. For those interested, the paper is available  here.In addition, presentation slides are made available here: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2973065

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